The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) has issued a flood alert warning indicating a High Risk of Flooding across the Tana River Basin over the coming days.
The alert is valid for the period between 28th April and 4th May 2026, warning that weather and river conditions are expected to intensify flood threats in several parts of the region.
According to the KMSA, the current situation is the result of persistent rainfall activity throughout the previous week. The forecast now predicts moderate to severe rainfall over the basin over the next seven days, raising river levels and increasing the risk of floods, particularly in prone regions.
Rainfall Outlook
KMSA reports that the Tana River Basin will experience moderate to heavy rainfall in the coming week. This follows a period of persistent rains recorded in the previous days. The continued precipitation is expected to contribute significantly to rising water levels in rivers and surrounding catchment areas.
The sustained rainfall increases the probability of flooding, particularly in areas that are already saturated or prone to overflow. As a result, authorities have maintained heightened surveillance across the basin.
River Levels (Garissa Gauge Station)
At the Garissa Gauge Station, river water levels are projected to rise sharply in the coming days. Forecasts indicate that levels may reach approximately 6.4 metres by 2nd May, which is significantly above the flood warning threshold of 5.0 metres.
KMSA further notes that these elevated levels are expected to persist for a period before gradually declining towards the beginning of the following week. This sustained increase places additional pressure on riverbanks and adjacent settlements.
The overall flood risk across the Tana River Basin has been classified as high. Areas identified as most at risk include Garissa, Hola, and Garsen, where flooding is likely to affect low-lying and flood-prone zones.
The combination of rising river levels and ongoing rainfall has heightened concerns over possible overflow events and localized flooding in vulnerable communities.
What This Means
KMSA warns that flooding is anticipated in the basin’s low-lying and flood-prone sections. Communities near riverbanks are urged to remain highly alert owing to rising water levels and continuing rains.
The situation may also cause interruptions in transportation and livelihoods, especially in areas where roads and infrastructure are damaged by floods or rising waters. The alert underlines the need for citizens to be more informed and prepared.
Advisory to the Public
KMSA has issued several safety recommendations to the public within the affected areas residents are advised to:
- Avoid crossing flooded rivers and roads
- Move to higher ground if located in flood-prone zones
- Follow guidance from local authorities and emergency services
- Stay updated through official KMSA communication channels
The authority continues to monitor the situation closely and urges the public to take the warnings seriously as conditions may change rapidly during the validity period.
